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This bird flu has flown

One of the first rules of political power is to create a bogey-man (BM).  As we all fear the BM, we're relieved when our political leaders are prepared to stand up to said BM, even if it means removing our civil liberties.  After all, it's for our own good.

Drug companies do something similar, although they call this object of fear the bogey-man disease (BMD).  Fortunately, the drug companies are on hand to protect us against BMDs, even though it means removing our common-sense or critical thinking.  After all, it's for the drug comapnies' good.

There have been plenty of BMDs through the years.  In 2003 we had SARs, a most fearful virus that was going to decimate the world's population.  Only it didn't.  This may have been because something bigger and more evil came along - avian flu.

Surely you remember avian flu, or bird flu, or influenza A, or H5N1, if you want to get technical.  The World Health Organization confidently assured us that 7.4 million people around the world would die from it, and that truth-sayer President Bush assured the American populace that the virus would wipe out 2 million of them.  Even our own chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson got in on the act.  He told the credulous British people that at least 750,000 Britons would die from it.  Very soon.

Thank goodness, then, that the drug industry had an answer to this BMD.  They had Tamiflu, and governments around the world joined an ordely queue to buy, buy, buy while stocks lasted.  The US bought $2bn of the drug, and the UK government wasn't far behind.  Even the usually sensible Canadians joined the panic rush, ignoring the advice of their medical officer, who pointed out that Tamiflu wouldn't work against avian flu.  The Centers for Disease Control in the US told President Bush something similar, but BM and BMDs are his stock in trade, so he was never going to listen.

So, just to recap: billions of dollars of a drug were sold, although it was ineffective against a disease that didn't exist.  This wasn't even brilliant; we are in the presence of genius.

Trouble is, the drugs industry needs another BMD, and quickly, too.  Anybody out there who spots the next major health scare, please let me know.

 

 

Published 13 June 2008 12:04 by Bryan Hubbard
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starlight said:

Unfortunately the H5N1 virus is still a threat. It is still spreading - still infecting wild birds and poultry. It is still infecting people.

There was never a time limit for the pandemic to begin.

Many people seem to believe that public health officials were saying that a pandemic was going to begin in the next seasonal flu season, and that is not true. Influenza pandemics can begin at any time of year.

The virus is still spreading. The fatality rate worldwide with good medical care and antiviral drugs is over 60%.

The "bird flu" is still flying - from bird to bird - still spreading and still a threat.

June 13, 2008 21:06
 

Jim Hughes said:

When we are blind sided by tragedy there are endless calls to find, blame, and ruin as many as possible to sooth those that are certain they have been "wrong". When a very real threat is identified and hard work results in either a window of time to inform, prepare, and maybe from time to time greatly lessen the impact of some event there is always someone that claims it was all a case of crying wolf. HN51 is very real and it is a threat to millions. Making light of the dangers to people across the globe from the very real disease for the purpose of something as trivial as this column is irresponsible.

June 14, 2008 02:31
 

richard ponsonby said:

SARS didn't kill a lot of people but of those infected the death rate was around 20% which is much higher than influenza which it superficially resembles.

One of the few treatments that seemed to offer hope, at least in Canada, was homeopathy.

June 15, 2008 01:01
 

Darrel Crain said:

High rates from avian flu reported for people with direct exposure to sick birds are wildly inaccurate. Suppose we only counted hospitalized influenza cases as the entire incidence of influenza in the populous. If we did that, the death rate from graden variety influenza would appear just as high.

As shown in the Swedish study in Vietnam and Cambodia a few years ago, many millions of people are directly exposed to sick birds and very few have died, and the symptoms mimic regular flu-like illness. And still no cases of human-to-human infection have been verified.

So, has it been a complete waste to spend billions on a drug that is inneffective for a problem that doesn't exist? Hell no! Not if your paycheck comes from Big Vaccine.

The bogus threat of bird flu is being used to coerce everyone in the country to get an annual flu shot so the entire vaccine apparatus is up and running to be ready for the "real" pandemic.

June 15, 2008 18:33
 

Kathryn said:

I want to be informed of possible pandemics.  The President of any country should always warn people of possible dangers.  If we had millions of people die, and our government didn't say anything....your story would be quite different, and very critical of the political leaders.

June 17, 2008 13:56
 

Larry said:

"Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on

a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of

it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people

don't want war neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in

Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the

country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to

drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist

dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no

voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.

That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked,

and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the

country to danger. It works the same in any country."  

Hermann Goering, Reichsmarshal,

June 17, 2008 14:20
 

Kaye Tucker said:

At the time of the panic I cast around for my own preventative, not wishing to be reliant on a 'cure' that might/might not work. I made a tincture of 25 herbs/spices all known to be anti-bacterial or anti-viral. This mixture has been very efficacious in seeing off colds - haven't had one that developed in the last two years. It also prevents cold sores from developing at all if used topically. It tastes vile but grandma always said the worse a medicine tasted the more good it did you!

June 17, 2008 14:21
 

Noëlle Weyeneth said:

What causes the epidemic among poultry is the increase of industrial farming in far eastern countries, the wild birds have been found innocent of avian flue. As long as we continue to exploit animals with all the cruelty that we are capable of, we will have epidemics. Now whether this will attack human beings..... we have created for ourselves so many new ailments, one more or less, what is the difference ?

As you say in your very good article, it is a matter of making big money ! The swiss government bought 8 millions doses of vaccination (2 years ago) with a validity of three years. In a few months, it will be good for gabbage, it is better there anyway than in our veins...!!!! Very soon we will be ready to pay.... for not being vaccinated !

June 17, 2008 14:51
 

Dave Reinmuth said:

Someone needs to inject credentials here. There are conflicting statements of "fact" here. Can "Bird Flu" infect humans, yes or no ?

Why is the US State Department issuing warnings about traveling to Europe that claim bird flu cases there have resulted in death? Could someone provide corroborating links of a threat? If not, then I'm forced to believe the posts about the BMD. (And regular flu kills over 30,000 per year in the US alone, but most of those are probably the elderly or the very young, so it is, in effect, "Natural causes")

June 17, 2008 14:58
 

Hilary Higgins said:

Whenever statistics predict that a certain percentage of the population will catch an infectious disease, there is always a percentage that will not.  If the bug is going around and drugs are ineffective, why is it not 100% fatality?  It is because some people don't catch things as easily as others.  They are stronger, fitter, less susceptible.  To increase your own individual fitness and decrease your susceptibility you need to take steps to make sure your bug fighting ability is at top notch strength.  This is what homoeopathy does for you.  A regular visit to your homoeopath will help to keep you in the statistics they don't quote.

June 17, 2008 15:38
 

bmiller said:

It's sad that the times make one cynical, but I've often wondered if drug cos. arean't actually *creating* new diseases - that they then just "happen" to have the remedy for. Wouldn't it make pure business sense? Why do we seem to see a new strain of flu come out of Hong Kong each Fall? And why is it commonly accepted that we need to prepare for "flu season". What is it about flu that makes is seasonal? One wonders if it isn't mostly a marketing gimmick.

June 17, 2008 21:03
 

stomec said:

I am not sure that WDDTY should be bringing up the topic of avian influenza again - famoulsly they reported that Tamiflu was a vaccine, demonstrating a complete ignorance of the concept, which is a bit worrying for an organisation campaigning against MMR.

June 18, 2008 12:26
 

Healthcare prof said:

As a professional I agree that this column is irresponsible - Governments are being led by the research conducted by the WHO. If there is a real risk, then we should be expecting our governments to do everything they can to protect us.

Imagine what people would be saying if there was all this evidence and the governments had done absolutely nothing. Then, imagine what would happen in the event that we do have a human influenza pandemic that has its orgins in a form of avian influenza.

The fact remains that influenza pandemics are just a part of nature and we are overdue the next occurance. Tamiflu AND the other available antiviral medications are being banked on because they can work on multiple strains of influenza, what we just don't know is if they will work on the emerging pandemic strain of virus. But if they do I am sure Byran (the column writer) will be in the queue. . .

It is better for our governments to prepare, and if your government does not have enough (and it is highly unlikely that they will after covering emergency service workers etc) I would suggest the private procurement and stockpile of medication after adequate research for individuals and businesses alike.

In addition, it is worthy of note that pinning our hopes on vaccination is flawed. This is because any vaccination would have to be able to predict the exact strain of virus that eventually becomes a pandemic. The recently approved H5N1 vaccination is all very well, but what if the virus continues to mutate and it doesn't work... square one. Vaccine manufacturing capacity, delivery and administration is also very worrying - it is likely that one or more waves of infection would hit before a vaccination was widely available.

June 18, 2008 14:00

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